That’s a respectable position to hold, as long as you have spent enough time looking at the polls yourself. If you don’t know the polls as well as I do, then your response is wishful thinking as well. You haven’t linked to any alternative analysis that goes into the kind of detail I went into in researching my position, so I don’t know if you’ve done that work or not. Until I see some other data, all I have to go on is the research I’ve done, and I did plenty.

Beyond that, I really did talk about Republican turnout being high as well. No one is denying that it will be very high again, as it was in 2016 and 2018. But the trends in the midterms and special elections since 2016 suggest that Republican turnout was already close to its practical maximum in 2016, and Trump doesn’t have a lot of room for growth. Whereas the Democrats have significantly increased their typical turnouts in most of those elections since 2016, showing that they have room for quite a bit of growth.

This last point is something that I didn’t discuss in detail in the article, but it’s actually not going to come down to swing voters this time, not to the same extent as it has in the past. There really aren’t many true swing voters left, according to most research. Instead, the election will likely come down to negative partisanship: voters will vote against the other party, rather than for their own party. If that’s the case, Trump is at a huge disadvantage, because Americans overall really dislike him deeply, compared to the rest of our presidents. He’s the only one who’s never cracked a 50% approval rating, up to this point in his first term.

May the best argument win. And let us shake hands when it’s done.

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