All of that stuff is politics as usual. But I think the 2018 results are more informative than the 2016 results, when it comes to making predictions for 2020. The 2018 turnout was based on hindsight from 2016 — the people who didn’t take Trump seriously in 2016, learned from their mistake. Right now in early 2020, no one has forgotten 2016 (least of all me). So I expect that the 2020 turnout will be more like 2018, which means Trump will likely lose. But again, we’ll find out soon enough if I’m right.

May the best argument win. And let us shake hands when it’s done.

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